Each student takes a turn as a guest/player in an imaginary TV game show.
The TV host (teacher or student experimenter/scientist) shows each guest three doors
The guest/player is told that behind one of the doors there is a car.
Behind the other two doors, there are goats.
The guest/player must try to win the car. To win the car:
The TV host/experimenter asks the guest/player to choose a door.
After the guest/player makes a choice, the TV host/experimenter opens a different door, revealing a goat.
The TV host/experimenter then says something like “We're down to two pots now, and I'm going to give you the chance to change your mind”: To stay with the initial choice, or change their mind and switch to the remaining closed door.
THE PROBLEM
If you were the guest/player, do you think it makes any difference which door you choose?
If you played this game 30 times, how many times do you think a player would win a car?
Write down how many times you predict a player would win if they played 30 games and draw a circle around your prediction.
Write down your justifications/proof, so that you can share and explain it to other students.
Design an experiment that would test your prediction.
Perform your experiment and record the data (for example, in a table of results in your journal)
Do the experimental results (data) support your prediction?
REMEMBER
The game show host/experimenter knows in advance which of the three doors hides the car.
Whatever door the guest/player initially chooses, the host/experimenter knows which of the remaining doors to open to reveal a goat.
More certain still, the guest/player knows that the host/experimenter will certainly not open the door that hides the car.